Forecasting pearl millet production and prices in Rajasthan, India: An ARIMA approach

Pearl millet holds significant agricultural importance in India, particularly within arid and semi-arid regions of Rajasthan. In Rajasthan state leads global production with 5.15 Mt 2022-23 cultivated across 4.51 Mha. Although, tops both area the price non-price factors lead to fluctuation prices pearl millet. have fluctuated over many years also experienced climate change during season after Forecasting will help farmers make decisions on marketing, acreage allocation sustain Therefore, present study aims forecast We used time series data comprising average monthly up December 2024 annual year 2029-30. The ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive models were employed prices. best-fitted model was (0, 1, 2) drift for (1, 1) 0, findings suggest a projected increase shows an increasing trend